2011: The dark year ahead

"Israel vs Hamas and Turkey, a war of mass civilian casualties and as usual, little real results.Turkey vs Arab partisans, Kurds, S.Cypriots,Greeks, Bulgarians, Serbian mercenaries and finally Russia. This will end in a Turkish defeat and the military coup of its Islamic government."

When Pravda, the Russian newspaper, publishes such articles (2011: The dark year ahead, 06.01.2011) as above, one has to ask what is the main purpose. One answer could be for domestic consumption and for feeding the nationalistic sentiments of the Russian citizens and the dream of Great Russia. Another answer could be the forming of a geopolitical agenda, even if what is said can be described as rather imaginative and very good for a fiction book, rather than an article published in a very well known newspaper. What follows is part of an article published in Pravda on-line: (http://english.pravda.ru/society/stories/06-01-2011/116445-2011_dark_year-2/)  

Israel is going to have a hot war on their hands, this year. First, with Brazil and Argentina both declaring recognition of the Palestinian terrorist state, this will put pressure to fight a real war. The war itself will initiate from Hamas, the radicals who just do not give much of a damn about how many Lebanese die for their Jihad. As Israel strikes back against the missile barrages and cross border attacks, it will also face increased pressure against it from the Palestinians. The Americans will give lukewarm support at best.

The key player who will escalate this will be the Turks, with Erdagon dead set on a military confrontation. He will get it, first at sea and the air and then with Turkish soldiers coming into Lebanon. The war will quickly escalate, with Turkey's own unstable internal and external politics playing a direct roll.

Israel will take severe damage on its border areas, however, there will also be mass casualties in southern Lebanon and the Palestinian areas. Gaza will catch the worst of it and may see direct indiscriminate artillery barrages by the IDF. Surrounding Arab nations will be rocked by fanatic protests, when their governments do not get involved, which will also bring down extreme crack downs and blood baths on the radicals from various kings and dictators bent on staying in power and not bringing themselves into the meat grinder.

Russia, due to the Turkish involvement and that of the Greeks and Kurds, will come out as the main Israeli ally, coming firstly out against the Turks and then being drawn in against the rest of the Islamics. Yes, Russia will loose a lot of influence with the Islamic Arabs but will gain immensely with the Orthodox Christians and other Christian groups, as well as the Jews.

The minority rulers of Syria, will also start to back off Hamas, not wishing to be drawn in and will be busy exterminating the radicals at home who will try to over throw Basher.

Lebanon

Lebanon is set to burn. Hamas, first backed by Iran and Syria and Turkey, will initiate a large scale war with Israel and will attempt, backed by the Turks, to come directly into power. Of course the aim will be to drive out the Christians and the nominal Muslims, which in itself will spark a low scale war. When the Turks arrive to "aid" Hamas against Israel, this will be seen as an attempt at the recreation of the despised Ottoman Empire. The Christian/liberal Muslim elements will go into a full partisan warfare mode, backed by Syria, which, while suppressing its own fanatics, will be doing everything it can to make sure its former oppressors do not put down deep roots.